Flavio Bolsonaro Wins Brazil Presidential Run-off Election

Flavio Bolsonaro won the presidential run-off election in Brazil on October 26, 2026. The victory follows a period of volatile expectations, where pre-election polls suggested a narrow margin while prediction market data from Polymarket had positioned Bolsonaro as a strong favorite with 81% probability the day before the vote.

Market sentiment shifted abruptly after an announcement that voting hours would be extended from 5:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. Despite this shift in sentiment and the narrow polling, Bolsonaro secured the win. The election result has already been challenged.