SBI Research Projects $85 Billion Inflow from RBI Swap Facility

The Reserve Bank of India introduced a concessional swap facility on June 5, 2026, to strengthen foreign exchange liquidity and the national balance of payments. The scheme became operational on June 8 and has already attracted approximately $20 billion as of July 17, with $17.406 billion coming from Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits mobilized largely by public sector banks.

SBI Research projects total inflows between $80 billion and $85 billion. This estimate includes $65 billion to $70 billion in FCNR(B) deposits, alongside Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings and External Commercial Borrowings. The window for FCNR(B) deposits closes September 30, 2026, while the borrowing window remains open until December 31, 2026.

These inflows are expected to create a balance of payments surplus exceeding $50 billion for fiscal 2026-27, reversing previous deficit projections. Despite these gains, the Indian rupee faces continued pressure from geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as volatile energy prices.