Goldman Sachs Analysis Finds Gap Between AI Hype and Productivity

An analysis by Goldman Sachs reveals a significant disconnect between corporate rhetoric regarding artificial intelligence and its actual macroeconomic impact. While 70% of S&P 500 management teams mentioned AI during quarterly calls, the firm found no meaningful relationship between AI adoption and productivity at an economy-wide level. Only 20% of U.S. companies currently utilize AI in any business function, resulting in a limited GDP impact of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.

Despite the lack of broad gains, localized productivity increases of roughly 30% appeared in software development and customer support. The report indicates that AI is already affecting the labor market, with companies mentioning AI in workforce management seeing a 12% reduction in job openings over the past year. Goldman Sachs forecasts that 11 million jobs, or 6% to 7% of the workforce, could be displaced by automation in the long term.

Financial markets remain volatile regarding these trends. Hyperscalers are expected to raise capital expenditures to $667 billion by 2026. Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management argued that AI adoption will take longer than 12 to 18 months, noting a rapid shift in market sentiment toward fears of mass unemployment.