USDA Lowers Corn Yield Projection as Production Forecast Rises

The United States Department of Agriculture reduced its national corn yield projection for the 2026/27 season to 180.7 bushels per acre, down from the 183 bushels projected in July. This reduction exceeded analyst expectations and caused corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade to jump as much as 4.1%.

Despite the lower yield per acre, the agency raised its total corn production forecast to 16.013 billion bushels, which would mark the second largest harvest on record. This increase is attributed to a rise in expected harvested acres to 88.6 million.

In other crop forecasts, the agency pegged soybean production at 4.52 billion bushels with yields reduced to 52.7 bushels per acre. It also confirmed that U.S. wheat production remains at its lowest level in over 50 years, with a forecast output of 1.53 billion bushels. To combat declining farmer survey response rates, the agency is utilizing field checks and satellite imagery to maintain forecast accuracy.