Hong Kong Raises 2026 Export Forecast Amid AI Boom

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council raised its 2026 merchandise export growth forecast to between 42% and 47%, citing a global boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure and related technologies. Electronics served as the primary engine for this growth, accounting for roughly 80% of total exports in the first eight months of 2026 and rising 52.8% year-on-year.

Trade with the United States increased 63.4% despite the imposition of a 12.5% Section 301 tariff in July. This resilience is attributed to tariff exemptions for technology products and a trade truce extended until January 2027 following a September meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. The meeting also established a US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement.

Officials noted a structural shift in the city's trade profile, evolving from a traditional trading gateway into a high-value-added international trade and supply chain management center. This transition has increased reliance on air freight for the transport of semiconductors and luxury goods. While the Export Confidence Index remains positive, the council warned that businesses still face external headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and rising protectionist measures in certain economies.