Verisk Maplecroft Warns Food Insecurity Risks Asian Political Instability

Risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft warns that Asia faces a heightened risk of civil unrest and political instability driven by converging food security threats. The consultancy reports that over half of the countries rated as high risk on its Food Security Index, including India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Indonesia, are also at high risk for civil unrest.

Environmental and geopolitical factors are driving food inflation across the region. Weather extremes linked to a powerful El Niño, combined with fuel and fertilizer supply disruptions caused by war in Iran, have strained production. Indonesia is battling wildfires that disrupt palm oil harvests, while India's monsoon rains have fallen 15% below normal, impacting rice production. Thailand also expects a decline in its sugar harvest.

Verisk Maplecroft notes that these food shocks could lead to humanitarian catastrophes in conflict-stricken nations such as Afghanistan and Myanmar. The consultancy suggests that if food price and availability pressures intensify and governments respond ineffectively, political instability could emerge in these higher-risk markets.