California Billionaire Tax Support Drops Amid Heavy Opposition Spending

Support for Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5 percent wealth tax on Californians with at least $1 billion in assets, has fallen to 46 percent among likely voters. According to a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted in mid-October, the measure previously held majority support at 52 percent, but now faces a tight race with 52 percent of voters opposing it.

Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, the primary backer of the tax, proposed the measure to offset federal Medicaid cuts. The union has raised $34 million and is utilizing social media influencers and campus creators to combat a heavily funded opposition campaign. Opponents, organized as Building a Better California and funded by Silicon Valley billionaires, have raised over $300 million. This opposition includes spending on countermeasures, Propositions 41 and 42, with Proposition 42 currently maintaining 51 percent support to prohibit new state personal property taxes.

Political divisions persist within the Democratic party. While the California Democratic Party endorses the measure, Governor Gavin Newsom opposes it. In response, the union plans to run ads in presidential primary states criticizing Newsom. Other ballot measures show varying results: Proposition 3, which extends high-income taxes for education, maintains 58 percent support, while Proposition 45 and Proposition 39 both trail in support.