Analysts Debate SpaceX Valuation Amid Starlink Growth
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. faces conflicting analyst views on its $2.2 trillion valuation as it expands Starlink and AI data center capabilities.
Financial analysts are divided over the valuation of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., which currently holds a market capitalization of $2.2 trillion. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood describes the company as a deep-value opportunity, projecting that annual revenue could reach $10 trillion if the company achieves its goal of 10,000 Starship launches per year by 2030. Elon Musk responded to these projections by stating, "It's not impossible."
Barclays analyst Anthony Valentini recently initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a price target of $254, suggesting a 56% potential upside. Valentini cited the company's dominance in the launch market—accounting for over 80% of U.S. commercial launches—and the growth of Starlink, which now has 12 million global subscribers, as significant competitive moats.
Despite the optimism, critics highlight risks including a high price-to-sales ratio and a 309% surge in capital expenditures during the first half of 2026, totaling $28.5 billion. These costs are primarily driven by AI investments that have not yet produced proportional revenue. Additionally, some analysts note that revenue per terabit of network capacity declined from $23 million in 2024 to $19 million in 2025, while the company has only conducted 14 Starship launches to date.
