EU Warns of Regional War as Ethiopia Fighting Escalates

The European Union warned on October 6, 2026, that escalating violence in Ethiopia and deteriorating relations with Eritrea risk triggering a broader regional conflict across the Horn of Africa. The warning follows renewed fighting that erupted on September 23 between Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) across the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions. Federal forces recently seized the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, after TPLF troops and leaders abandoned the city.

The conflict threatens the November 2022 Pretoria agreement and has led to a collapse in diplomatic relations. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, prompting Eritrea to sever ties. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of backing Tigrayan rebels, while Eritrea claims Ethiopia plans an invasion to secure Red Sea coastline access.

Regional tensions are further strained by a long-standing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. In response to the instability, the presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea met in El-Alamein, Egypt, to call for the peaceful resolution of disputes. The EU has urged immediate de-escalation and a recommitment to the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement within the African Union framework.