Europe Faces Major Jet Fuel Deficit Amid Iran War

Europe faces a projected jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day for the fourth quarter of 2026. This shortage follows the outbreak of the Iran war six months ago, which disrupted Middle Eastern supplies and eliminated roughly half of the region's jet imports.

To address the gap, Europe has increased imports from the United States, Canada, and Nigeria. South Korea emerged as a critical supplier in September, providing 129,000 barrels per day, the highest volume since October 2022. This increase follows a seven-year high in South Korean jet fuel output in July, which reached nearly 13.89 million barrels.

The shift in supply chains is driven by a widening price spread between Asian and European benchmarks, increasing the profitability of exports to Europe. This demand surge coincides with inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub hitting a seven-year low in early September.