Fitch Projects US Debt to Reach 123% of GDP by 2028

Fitch Ratings projects that the United States government debt burden will rise to 123% of gross domestic product by the end of 2028, increasing from 117% at the end of 2025. The agency reports that the U.S. has failed to take meaningful action to address large fiscal deficits, which are expected to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and 2027.

This fiscal pressure stems from rising military and interest costs, alongside increased spending on Medicare and Social Security for an aging population. Fitch estimates the U.S. will reach its statutory debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion by mid-2027.

Despite these projections, the agency affirmed the U.S. long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. This decision is based on the dynamic business environment and the status of the dollar as a reserve currency. Fitch forecasts average economic growth of 1.9% for 2026 and 2027, with inflation expected to average 3.4% this year.