Citi Downgrades Moderna to Sell Predicting 60% Price Drop

Citi analyst Geoff Meacham downgraded Moderna to a sell rating on Wednesday, predicting the company's stock price could decline by 60%. While Meacham raised the price target from $60 to $80, he argued that the current share price of approximately $200 is unsustainable. He stated that the valuation is unjustifiable based on pipeline net present value and public-company comparisons.

Moderna shares had previously rallied 223% since August 19. This surge followed positive late-stage trial results for intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer vaccine used alongside Merck's Keytruda for patients with advanced melanoma. Meacham contends that for the current stock price to be justified, annual oncology sales would need to be nearly seven times higher than Citi's internal models predict.

Following the downgrade, Moderna shares fell nearly 6% in premarket trading. Meacham characterized the current situation as having a negatively skewed risk/reward profile based on what he described as unrealistic assumptions regarding point-of-sale and implied sales.