Oil Flows Rise in Strait of Hormuz Despite Iranian Blockade

Oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing despite a naval blockade and a June 11 closure announcement by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. United States officials have confirmed that traffic is rising meaningfully, though estimates of daily flows vary. One estimate places the volume at 7 million barrels per day, while other financial data suggests just over 5 million barrels. Earlier data from late May showed roughly 2.1 million barrels transiting, with an additional 900,000 barrels moved by shadow fleets using dark mode tactics to avoid detection.

The surge in traffic coincides with indications of a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. References to a secret plan to facilitate oil passage contributed to a decline in Brent and WTI crude prices to below $90 per barrel as of June 12.

While some ships have paid tolls to the Iran-created Persian Gulf Strait Authority for safe passage, many vessels continue to disable their Automatic Identification Systems to bypass restrictions. Market volatility persists as shipowners position tankers in the Persian Gulf, awaiting a formal reopening of the corridor. Some economists warn that fuel price volatility could worsen if resolutions fail.