Social Security 2027 COLA Estimates Range From 3.4% to 3.6%

The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 14, following the release of September inflation figures by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Preliminary estimates based on August data place the adjustment between 3.4% and 3.6%, an increase over the 2.8% adjustment implemented in January 2026.

Specific projections include a 3.4% increase from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 3.5% from the Senior Citizens League, and 3.6% from AARP. The Senior Citizens League notes that a 3.5% increase would raise the average monthly benefit from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98. The final figure is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which tracks price changes from July through September.

Despite the projected increase, advocates and experts warn that the raise may be offset by rising living costs and Medicare Part B premiums. The Senior Citizens League reported that Social Security benefits lost 13.7% of their buying power between 2016 and 2026, arguing that the current formula focuses on wage earners rather than the specific expenses faced by retirees. Because COLAs are backward-facing and tied to inflation, a higher adjustment indicates that prices have already risen substantially, meaning recipients may only maintain existing buying power.