Captured Documents Reveal Hamas Strategic Logic for October 7
Hamas leadership launched the October 7 attacks to break a perceived strategic paralysis caused by the Gaza siege and Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts.
Internal documents captured by the Israeli army reveal that Hamas leadership launched the October 7 attacks based on a calculation that the existing status quo was more dangerous than a major military confrontation. The group identified five primary pressures driving the decision: the long-term siege of Gaza, expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank, threats to the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the volume of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, and the potential for Saudi-Israeli normalization.
Hamas leaders believed that inaction would lead to the marginalization of the Palestinian cause. While the organization anticipated a severe military response from Israel and diplomatic support from the United States, the documents suggest they miscalculated the scale of the resulting destruction.
Further analysis indicates Hamas overestimated the duration of Western diplomatic backing and the extent of regional military coordination within the Axis of Resistance. The findings were published by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.
