Polling Firms Admit Fraud as Election Betting Sparks Warnings
Median Strategies and Wedgewood Polls admitted to fabricating election data while officials warn that prediction markets could fuel claims of voter fraud.
Two polling firms, Median Strategies and Wedgewood Polls, admitted to fabricating election data during the current cycle, describing the fraudulent polls as experiments. Median Strategies overstated the chances of a far-left candidate in the Wisconsin governor's Democratic primary. Wedgewood Polls produced fake numbers that contributed to State Senator Mallory McMorrow dropping out of Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary after staff morale and donations declined.
These admissions come as prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket introduce live betting odds for the November 3 midterm elections. Ethics experts and researchers warn that financial market expectations may overshadow actual votes, potentially leading voters to claim fraud if official results diverge from market odds. This concern follows a June Los Angeles mayoral primary where influencers used prediction odds to allege fraud after candidate Spencer Pratt lost.
In response to these risks, Kalshi issued a memo prohibiting paid partners from questioning the integrity of official vote tallies without evidence. Meanwhile, Maryland election chief Jared DeMarinis prohibited poll workers from betting on elections and requested a state investigation into the legality of such markets under local law. Some critics argue that while prediction markets face scrutiny, the polling industry has already caused documented damage to election integrity.
