India and US Await October Inflation Data for December Rate Decisions

Central banks in India and the United States are preparing for December monetary policy decisions as new inflation data emerges. In India, the Bank of Baroda projects that the October Consumer Price Index will rise to 6%, an increase from 5.54% in September. This trend is driven by food price pressures, particularly a 99.6% year-on-year surge in onion prices, while low reservoir storage levels threaten future agricultural supply.

In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October CPI report on November 10. Due to a government shutdown in October 2025, the agency will omit year-over-year inflation rates, forcing analysts to focus on month-over-month changes. Wall Street economists are divided on the outcome, with forecasts for headline CPI ranging from 0.2% to 0.3% based on energy and imported goods costs.

Both the Reserve Bank of India and the Federal Reserve System will use these reports as primary gauges for their respective December meetings. In the U.S., most analysts expect the Federal Open Market Committee to implement another interest rate hike following a mid-September increase and a late October pause.