Sweden Opposition Polling Lead Shrinks Ahead of September Election

The polling lead held by the Social Democrat-led opposition bloc in Sweden has decreased significantly over the summer. According to a Demoskop poll, the opposition currently holds 50.6% of the vote, while the ruling coalition led by Ulf Kristersson holds 46.9%.

This 3.7 percentage point gap represents the smallest margin since autumn 2023, a sharp decline from the 7.6 point lead the opposition maintained in June. The shift is driven in part by the Christian Democrats, who have reached a six-year polling high of 7.5%.

Despite the gains for the ruling bloc, the coalition faces instability as the Liberals currently poll at 2.4%, falling below the 4% parliamentary threshold required for representation. If current trends persist into the September 13 general election, the opposition is projected to secure 186 seats compared to 163 for the Moderate-led coalition.