India Faces Oil Security Risks Amid Russian Port Disruptions

India's energy security is currently strained by a combination of geopolitical disruptions and structural weaknesses. The International Energy Agency warned that Indian refining operations are vulnerable because approximately 80 percent of Russian crude exports to India flow through three ports: Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk. These terminals have been targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes, leaving volumes from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk constrained.

This physical instability coincides with a regulatory hurdle, as a 30-day United States waiver for Russian oil purchases expired on April 11, 2026. The Government of India is currently seeking an extension from Washington to maintain its import levels, which averaged 1.98 million barrels per day in March 2026.

Parallelly, an analysis from Carnegie India identifies a critical gap in national preparedness. India's total oil cover, comprising commercial inventories and Strategic Petroleum Reserves, is estimated at 50 to 60 days, falling short of the 90-day benchmark recommended by the International Energy Agency. The report highlights a crude lock-in issue, noting that refineries operated by Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries are optimized for medium-to-heavy crude, making it difficult to switch rapidly to lighter grades during a crisis. To address these gaps, Carnegie India proposes a hybrid storage model allowing global producers to lease space in Indian caverns.