Axis Capital Forecasts India Data Centre Capacity at 3 GW by 2030

An analysis by Axis Capital indicates that India's operational data centre capacity will likely reach between 3 and 3.6 GW by 2030, significantly lower than industry targets of 6-8 GW. While current installed capacity stands at 1.4 GW, the firm warns that execution hurdles, power availability, and supply-chain bottlenecks will constrain growth.

Major obstacles include shortages in the mechanical, electrical, and plumbing supply chain and a deficit of skilled manpower. Power connection delays average 18 months, and land constraints necessitate vertical construction, extending project timelines to 28-36 months. Critical backup generation equipment from brands like Caterpillar, Cummins, and MTU is reportedly booked two years in advance.

Demand is increasingly driven by AI-focused cloud players and hyperscalers, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Google, who are expected to account for 90% of demand by 2030. This shift toward AI-enabled infrastructure has increased capital intensity, with costs rising to ₹48-54 crore per MW, representing a 10-15% premium over traditional colocation builds. If planned projects are fully realized, long-term capacity could reach 7-8 GW by 2035.