Senators Urge CFTC to Ban Wildfire Prediction Betting

A coalition of Democratic senators, led by Jeff Merkley, has formally urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to block prediction markets from offering bets on destructive wildfires. In a letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, lawmakers from Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire argued that such contracts commodify human suffering and create dangerous incentives for individuals to commit arson or interfere with firefighting efforts to ensure successful wagers.

The senators specifically cited Polymarket, which reportedly accepted over $1.2 million in bets on the Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles in January 2025. This push comes amid active blazes in the Pacific Northwest and a recent arson arrest in Spokane, Washington. The group requested that the CFTC respond by August 14, 2026, regarding potential rulemaking to prohibit these contracts and strategies for addressing offshore platforms.

Industry responses are split. Kalshi prohibits wildfire contracts, citing perverse incentives. Conversely, Polymarket defended its markets, claiming that removing them does not prevent tragedy and only limits access to market-based information. Beyond the CFTC request, Senator Merkley has introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act and the End Prediction Market Corruption Act to restrict betting on government actions, military events, and elections.