Calgary Chamber Report Warns Alberta Separation Could Cost $62 Billion

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce released an economic report and an open letter signed by major business leaders warning of severe financial damage if Alberta separates from Canada. The analysis, authored by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, projects an annual GDP decline of 8 to 13 percent, representing a loss of $41 billion to $62 billion. The report estimates that increased trade costs could result in the loss of up to 175,000 jobs province-wide, including 44,000 to 69,000 in Calgary alone.

To address a projected $9 billion annual fiscal shortfall, the study suggests Alberta would need to implement a 13 percent sales tax or a 10 percent corporate income tax hike. Signatories to the open letter include executives from AltaGas, ATCO, AltaLink, Capital Power, Keyera, BHE Transmission, and Chirp Foods Inc.

Chamber CEO Deborah Yedlin argued that separation would destroy the low-tax environment and social services known as the Alberta advantage. She noted that current federal policies under Prime Minister Mark Carney are more supportive of energy infrastructure than those of Justin Trudeau. Conversely, Keith Wilson of Let Alberta Decide dismissed the findings as unreliable, claiming the report relies on pessimistic assumptions that ignore mutual trade interests. These warnings precede an October 19 vote where Albertans will decide whether the provincial government should begin the legal process toward a binding separation referendum.