HSBC Forecasts Gold Price Recovery by 2027

HSBC predicts that gold prices could recover in 2027, provided the U.S. Federal Reserve adopts a less aggressive interest rate path than current market expectations. The bank recently lowered its near-term forecasts, citing a strong U.S. dollar, rising oil prices, and hawkish rate expectations as primary headwinds.

Gold prices reached a record $5,450 an ounce in January 2026 but declined to $3,942 by June, a shift driven by higher yields and the Iran conflict. Despite this volatility, the bank maintains a constructive long-term outlook. It identifies steady central bank purchases and increased institutional demand from China and India as critical supports that could establish a price floor.

Conversely, high prices and inflation have weakened physical demand for coins and jewelry. While mine output is expected to increase modestly through 2027, falling ore grades continue to constrain production.