James Talarico Leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Polls

James Talarico, a Democratic Texas state representative, leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in two recent polls for the U.S. Senate. A Fox News poll released July 30 shows Talarico with 51% support against Paxton's 48%, a result within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. A separate poll by Texas Public Opinion Research released on July 28 showed Talarico with a wider 5-point lead.

Talarico maintains strong support among Democrats, independents, and Hispanic voters, while Paxton leads among rural voters and white evangelical Christians. The Fox News survey reveals that 24% of non-MAGA Republicans support Talarico and 59% of voters question Paxton's suitability for the Senate. Daron Shaw, the pollster for Fox News, noted that Paxton's previous primary victory over John Cornyn left scars and suggested Paxton must aggressively tie Talarico to the far left of the Democratic Party to gain ground.

Inflation remains the primary deciding factor for nearly 40% of voters. The data also indicates a shift in the political climate, with Donald Trump's approval rating in Texas dropping from 55% in 2024 to 45%.