OECD Raises South Korea 2026 Growth Forecast to 2.6%

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised South Korea's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, a significant increase from its March projection of 1.7%. This revision follows a surge in semiconductor exports driven by the global artificial intelligence boom, with chip exports hitting a record monthly high of $37.2 billion in May. Overall exports for that month rose 53% year-on-year to $87.8 billion.

The organization projected 2026 consumer price inflation at 2.6%. It noted that government efforts to cap oil and fuel prices successfully eased inflation, although it recommended phasing out these programs to prevent long-term inflationary pressure.

Despite the short-term optimism, the OECD lowered South Korea's 2027 growth projection to 1.9%. It also reduced the global economic growth outlook to 2.8%, citing supply disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and spikes in energy prices. The upward 2026 revision aligns with estimates from the Industrial Bank of Korea and the Korea Information Society Development Institute, the latter of which projected 2.5% growth.