Yes Securities Predicts India Hits $1 Trillion Merchandise Exports by 2030

A report from Yes Securities asserts that India is positioned to reach US$1 trillion in merchandise exports by 2030 through a combination of new Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, and the global China+1 diversification trend. This strategy is part of a broader national goal to achieve US$2 trillion in total exports by 2030, split evenly between merchandise and services.

The brokerage identifies agreements with the UAE, Australia, UK, EFTA, Oman, New Zealand, and the EU as evidence of a fundamental shift from cautious protectionism toward global trade integration. These agreements, alongside industrial incentives, are expected to primarily benefit the electronics, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods sectors and may revive a stagnant private investment cycle.

However, the report warns that domestic structural bottlenecks could impede this growth. High logistics costs, expensive power, and low labor productivity remain significant risks that could widen trade deficits if India fails to improve its overall domestic competitiveness.