Ethiopian Forces Seize Mekelle as TPLF Shifts to Guerrilla War

Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray Peace Force seized control of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region, on Saturday. The takeover followed the recapture of Alula Aba Nega Airport and the withdrawal of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which stated it had "temporarily moved out of Mekelle" to operate from other locations. The TPLF and six other groups had formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on September 23 to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali from power, marking the collapse of a 2022 peace agreement.

The conflict has expanded beyond Tigray, with reports of drone strikes in Addis Ababa and clashes in the Amhara and Afar regions. Hundreds have died in the renewed fighting, which TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael described as a "continuation of the previous war" and a regional struggle for control of the Red Sea. While federal troops now patrol Mekelle, residents reported looting of government offices following the TPLF retreat.

Diplomatic relations in the Horn of Africa have deteriorated as Ethiopia accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting the rebels. Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy, leading Eritrea to sever diplomatic ties. In response, leaders from Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan met in Alamein, Egypt, to discuss the risk of a wider regional war. The United States Department of State warned that these tensions "have the potential to affect the entire region" and urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint.