Iran Threatens Dual Strait Closures to Spike Oil Prices

The Government of Iran has seized military control of the Strait of Hormuz and is now signaling its intention to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea via its Houthi allies. This escalation follows a broader conflict launched in February 2026 by the United States and Israel, which has seen deepening U.S. military strikes inside Iran and thousands of casualties in Iran and Lebanon.

By controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has weaponized a chokepoint carrying approximately 20.9% of global maritime crude oil and liquid hydrocarbons, primarily affecting Asian economies. Iran also controls seven major submarine telecommunication cables crossing the strait. Tehran maintains that this position establishes it as a global superpower capable of forcing the lifting of bilateral sanctions.

To further increase economic pressure on Washington, Mohammed al-Farah of the Houthi movement, Ansarullah, warned that Yemen's armed forces are prepared to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in an operational alliance with the Strait of Hormuz. Al-Farah stated that such a move would occur if Saudi Arabia continues military operations in Yemen or if the current situation aggravates, claiming oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel. This strategy aims to widen the conflict beyond the Persian Gulf to force the United States back to negotiations.