USDA Expected to Lower Corn Feed Estimates After Stock Surge

The United States Department of Agriculture is expected to lower its estimates for corn fed to livestock for the 2025/26 crop year. This adjustment follows the release of quarterly data on September 30 showing over 2 billion bushels in storage, representing a 35 percent increase from the previous year and a 9 percent increase over analyst estimates.

The discrepancy indicates the agency likely overstated feed demand, which it calculates indirectly by tracking ethanol production and exports. Market analysts argued that the USDA's projected 17 percent increase in feed use was unrealistic given that the national cattle herd has reached a 75-year low.

The agency defended its methodology, stating that updating forecasts based on new data does not show an unusual problem with forecasting or data collection. However, the agency acknowledged that farmer response rates to its surveys have been declining.