Majority of Americans Oppose Election Prediction Markets

A bipartisan majority of Americans oppose the use of prediction markets to bet on US elections, military actions, and government policy decisions, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from September 30 to October 5. The data shows 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose betting on election results.

Polymarket and Kalshi are at the center of a growing regulatory debate. Critics, including Senator Jeff Merkley, warn that these platforms enable insider trading and threaten national security. The industry argues that its markets offer more accurate forecasts than traditional polling and maintain that controls are in place to prevent misconduct.

Jurisdictional disputes persist between federal and state authorities. The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, under the Donald Trump administration, classifies these contracts as financial products to assert federal jurisdiction. Conversely, state regulators argue the platforms are gambling operations that should be subject to stricter state laws.