Senators Demand Transparency as Midterm Prediction Bets Hit $1.4 Billion

Wagering on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has reached record levels, with more than $1.4 billion traded across prediction markets. Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket have seen massive activity, including $111.8 million wagered on two key Texas races where Democratic candidates James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa are showing strength against Republicans Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott.

Amidst this surge, Elizabeth Warren and Senator John Curtis sent a letter on October 28 demanding transparency from Kalshi and Polymarket. The senators expressed concern that event contracts are being treated as indicators of political momentum and may be susceptible to wash trading or insider trading. They specifically cited a February 2026 instance where California gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford bet on his own victory on Kalshi.

Robert DeNault, Kalshi's head of enforcement, defended the platform's integrity, stating that the company prohibits insider trading and proactively blocks candidates and campaign staff from trading. While industry leaders like Lucas Kohorst of Adjacent Markets argue that these platforms have joined the mainstream, critics maintain that the markets turn the democratic process into a game of profit and loss.