Ukraine Cuts Grain Export Forecast Due to Russian Port Attacks

The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine reduced its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 July-June season by up to 12 percent, lowering the target to 38–40 million tonnes from an initial projection of 43 million tonnes.

Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi attributed the reduction to escalating Russian attacks on the Odesa port hub and other Black Sea terminals. These strikes have effectively halted shipments since late July. Because Ukraine relies on seaports for over 90 percent of its grain exports, the ministry warns the disruption could result in agricultural sector losses of $3 billion and a grain storage shortfall of 11 million tonnes.

Independent analysts at APK-Inform aligned with the official government forecast, lowering their own estimate to 39.4 million tonnes. The consultancy specifically cited expected reductions in the export of barley, corn, and wheat.