World Bank Forecasts 30.7 Percent Global Fertilizer Price Increase

The World Bank Group projects a 30.7 percent increase in global fertilizer prices during 2026. This surge is driven by natural gas price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to raise food production costs and heighten inflation risks. While prices are forecasted to ease in 2027, the immediate increase threatens food security in low-income economies, with Ghana identified as particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on imports.

In the United States, rising input costs are impacting agricultural stability. An American Farm Bureau Federation survey of more than 5,700 farmers revealed that approximately 70 percent may be unable to afford necessary fertilizers for the current year. The Tennessee Department of Agriculture noted that these costs specifically threaten the production of corn and soybeans.

The United States Department of Agriculture predicts a 2.9 percent increase in national food prices this year, citing rising production expenses as a primary driver. Analysts warn that if planting is reduced due to these costs, supply could tighten further, maintaining pressure on consumer grocery prices into 2027.