Opportunity Party Breaches Threshold as Labour Support Plummets

A recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll shows the Opportunity Party surging to 6.1% support, breaching the 5% parliamentary threshold for the first time in a mainstream poll. This growth comes primarily at the expense of the opposition Labour Party, which fell to 27.8%, its lowest result since December 2024. Other left-wing parties also declined, with the Green Party dropping to 10.1% and Te Pāti Māori falling to 1.5%.

The ruling centre-right coalition, led by the National Party at 31%, is projected to maintain a narrow one-seat majority with 61 of 120 parliamentary seats ahead of the November 7 election. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon leads preferred Prime Minister rankings at 23.2%, followed by Labour leader Chris Hipkins at 19.8%.

Internal coalition tensions have emerged over Luxon's suggestion of a referendum on the Mixed Member Proportional electoral system, a move opposed by New Zealand First and ACT. Additionally, Luxon characterized recent comments by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters as offensive and racist, though Peters remains Foreign Affairs Minister. Despite the Opportunity Party's rise, Luxon has ruled out a partnership with them due to incompatible tax policies, a decision Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong urged him to reconsider.