Sahel Jihadist Violence Projected to Reach Record Levels in 2026

Violence from Islamist extremist groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State is projected to reach record levels in 2026 across Africa's Sahel region. Data from the conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location and Event Data shows a massive surge in incidents involving jihadist groups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, rising from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. More than 2,145 events have already been logged this year.

In Mali, Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) partnered with the Azawad Liberation Front in a joint offensive that seized the strategic city of Kidal. The operation resulted in the deaths of the defense minister and the head of military intelligence. In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed more than 130 attacks in 2026, including strikes near the capital.

While global terrorism deaths have declined since 2008, the Sahel remains a high-fatality zone. The United Nations recorded over 9,000 deaths in the three-country region in 2025. Despite commanding significant territory, these groups currently focus on localized operations rather than the global targets historically prioritized by al-Qaida.