Somalia Faces Famine Risk as El Niño Floods Loom

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warns that 5.4 million people in Somalia will face crisis levels of hunger or worse between October and December 2026. Approximately 26,000 displaced individuals in Baidoa are at risk of famine, driven by critical malnutrition and a collapse in livelihoods. An estimated 1.92 million children under five will require treatment for acute malnutrition by June 2027.

The crisis is compounded by a forecasted Super El Niño, which is expected to bring severe flooding. The Somalia Disaster Management Agency estimates that up to 3.5 million people could be exposed to floods, potentially displacing another 1 million. In Beletweyne, flooding could displace over 200,000 people and trigger extremely critical levels of malnutrition.

Humanitarian efforts are severely hampered by funding shortfalls. The $852 million Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is only 31 percent funded, leading to the closure of 233 nutrition centers. Food assistance is projected to reach only 1.3 percent of those in need. CARE International and other agencies are calling for immediate flexible funding to pre-position supplies before floodwaters restrict road access in October.