Guan Chong CEO Predicts Global Cocoa Supply Deficit

Chief Executive Officer of Guan Chong Berhad Brandon Tay Hoe Lian warns that the global cocoa market will face a supply deficit of 300,000 to 400,000 tons during the 2026-27 season. This forecast marks a reversal from previous surpluses and is attributed to El Niño weather patterns and excessive rainfall in West Africa, which have led to waterlogged fields and heightened disease risks.

Tay predicts that cocoa futures could climb to $8,000 a ton by December, an increase from the current price of approximately $6,500. This outlook differs from projections by StoneX, Hedgepoint Global Markets, and BMI, which anticipate a smaller surplus for the same period.

Despite uneven global demand recovery, cocoa grinding in Asia rose by 25% in the second quarter compared to the previous year. Michel Arrion of the International Cocoa Organization supports the view that poor global production will drive prices higher.