BLS to Release July Consumer Price Index Report Wednesday

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July consumer price index report on Wednesday morning. The data will serve as a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve System as it determines interest rate policy for its upcoming September meeting.

Economic forecasts for the report vary between traditional analysts and prediction markets. Dow Jones economists predict a headline inflation rate of 3.4%, representing a slight decrease from the 3.5% recorded in June. For core inflation, which excludes food and energy, Dow Jones estimates a 2.5% increase.

Traders on the prediction market Kalshi expect tamer inflation than the consensus. These traders place the likelihood of a year-over-year reading exceeding 3.3% at less than 55%. Regarding core inflation, Kalshi traders see only an 11% chance that the reading will rise above 2.5%.