Visa Forecasts Fastest U.S. Holiday Sales Growth Since 2021
Visa predicts U.S. holiday retail sales will grow 4.5 percent this year, driven by consumer resilience and steady income growth.
The Business and Economics Insights division of Visa forecasts that U.S. holiday retail sales will grow 4.5 percent year-on-year during the final two months of 2026. This represents the fastest growth rate since 2021, a trend the company attributes to household wealth, solid income growth, and general consumer resilience despite high inflation.
Consumers are expected to spend an average of 777 dollars on holiday gifts, marking a 5.6 percent increase from the 736 dollar average recorded in 2025. While more than half of surveyed consumers expressed interest in travel and events, budgets remain skewed toward traditional physical gifts, which 27 percent of consumers prioritize over the 15 percent prioritizing experiences.
Spending patterns vary significantly by income level. Holiday airfare spending increased only among households earning over 200,000 dollars, while lower-income groups reduced their bookings. This broader resilience in spending is mirrored in recent financial performance, as both Visa and Mastercard beat their quarterly earnings estimates.
