IMF Projects Sharp 2027 Growth for Saudi Arabia and Gulf

The International Monetary Fund projects the Saudi Arabian economy will grow by 7.9 percent in 2027, rebounding from a projected 3.3 percent contraction in 2026. This recovery depends on a return to energy production and exports, as well as the restoration of regional trade flows.

The IMF baseline scenario assumes the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in March 2027 and returns to pre-war conditions by October 2027. To maintain resilience, the Government of Saudi Arabia is utilizing the East-West Pipeline to transport crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with plans to increase that capacity to 10 million barrels per day.

Other Gulf economies are expected to see similar sharp recoveries in 2027. Qatar is projected to lead the region with 18.8 percent growth, followed by Kuwait at 17.1 percent, Bahrain at 13.9 percent, the United Arab Emirates at 7.7 percent, and Oman at 2.2 percent.