ICICI Bank Forecasts 7.2 Percent Indian Growth for FY28

ICICI Bank forecasts that India's economic growth will accelerate to approximately 7.2 percent in FY28. This outlook follows a period of expected moderation in the second half of FY27, which the lender attributes to a high base effect.

The projection comes as the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India keeps the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent and maintains a neutral policy stance. While high-frequency indicators point toward a robust growth trajectory, the bank warns that global macroeconomic volatility and El-Nino weather patterns introduce medium-term uncertainty.

ICICI Bank anticipates a potential 50 basis point rate hike cycle. The timing of this cycle depends on energy costs, with a possible start in December 2026 if oil prices remain high, or April 2027 if prices are lower. The Reserve Bank of India currently views the risks to both inflation and economic growth as evenly balanced.