Polymarket Odds Shift Toward Federal Reserve Rate Pause
Polymarket traders now favor a rate pause for the Federal Reserve's October meeting as Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs.
Prediction market Polymarket recorded a significant shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 meeting, with odds flipping from a likely rate hike to a likely pause. On September 27, traders priced a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, but by September 30, the probability of no change rose to 57% while the chance of a hike fell to 42%.
This shift follows a September 16 decision by the Federal Reserve to raise the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The change in market sentiment occurs as Treasury yields climb, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.116% and the 30-year yield hitting its highest closing level since 2001. Federal Reserve Governor Mike Sullivan previously suggested that further tightening might be necessary to reach the 2% inflation target.
Despite the environment of high rates, which typically reduces liquidity for risk assets, Bitcoin has remained resilient due to exchange-traded fund flows and improved regulatory sentiment. Market participants are now monitoring official Federal Reserve communication and inflation data to determine if tightening will eventually constrain risk appetite.
