Europe Faces Critical Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Middle East Tensions

Europe is facing a critical jet fuel shortage, with less than 30 days of demand cover remaining. This represents the tightest supply coverage among major global aviation markets. The crisis stems from decades of refinery closures and a heavy reliance on Middle Eastern shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for one-fifth of global seaborne oil and LNG.

Supply chains were severely disrupted following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February, which triggered a war. While the strait partially reopened in June, a fragile truce remains under threat from ongoing strikes by both sides. Energy Aspects projects a supply deficit of nearly 600,000 barrels per day for the third quarter, contrasting with surpluses in Asia-Pacific and the United States.

To mitigate the deficit, the European Commission is monitoring stocks and diversifying imports from Canada, India, South Korea, Nigeria, and the United States. Canada reached a record monthly intake of fuel exports to Europe in June. Within Europe, Italian refiners and the company The Imitation Game have boosted production, including a 10% increase in output through the import of semi-finished products.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned that stocks could become critically constrained by the end of the summer holiday season. He stated that the Commission would coordinate the release of national emergency reserves if stocks tighten further.