Dangote Refinery Boosts Nigeria Petroleum Exports Amid State Refinery Failures

Nigeria's petroleum landscape is shifting toward private production as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals Fze drives a massive increase in seaborne shipments. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2026, seaborne petroleum product shipments grew seven-fold, averaging 561,000 barrels per day. This growth followed the refinery's January 2024 opening and a February 2026 expansion that raised crude oil distillation capacity to 700,000 barrels per day.

These gains have allowed Nigeria to reduce its import reliance from nearly 400,000 barrels per day in 2023 to less than 130,000 barrels per day by mid-2026, a transition aided by supply constraints in the Strait of Hormuz. However, recent data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows a short-term dip in petrol supply. In July 2026, daily petrol supply fell 10 percent to 45.5 million litres, driven by a 21 percent drop in domestic supply.

While the Dangote refinery operated at 71.09 percent capacity in July, producing 25.9 million litres daily, the three state-owned refineries operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited remained shut. Despite the petrol decline, diesel supply rose 46 percent and domestic Liquefied Petroleum Gas supply increased by 22 percent during the same period.