US Energy Agency Forecasts Oil Disruptions Through 2026

The United States Energy Information Administration expects oil supply disruptions resulting from the US-Iran war to reach approximately 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2026. The agency has raised gasoline and diesel price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as a result of the conflict.

Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have declined sharply following attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel. Oil transport in the waterway averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, down from 21.6 million barrels per day in late 2025. While production shut-ins in the Middle East eased slightly in July, they are projected to increase to 6.6 million barrels a day in the third quarter.

Most production and trade flows are not expected to return to pre-war levels until early 2027. The Government of Oman is currently engaged in talks with Iran to reopen the strait, though a resolution remains elusive.