Tesla Projects Q1 Delivery Decline Amid U.S. Tax Credit End

Tesla Inc. shared analyst estimates projecting 365,645 vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2026. While this represents an 8% increase year-over-year from Q1 2025, it is a 12.5% decline from the 418,227 units delivered in the fourth quarter of 2025. Model 3 and Model Y units are expected to comprise 351,179 of those deliveries, while battery deployments are anticipated to reach 14.4 GWh.

The slowdown is attributed to seasonal trends and falling demand in the United States following the expiration of electric car tax credits, which previously supported roughly 30% of the company's sales. Individual analyst projections vary, with Visible Alpha estimating 370,000 units and RBC Capital predicting 367,000, while UBS forecasts a lower 345,000 units.

Amid this transition, the company is shifting focus toward robotaxis and humanoid technologies, and may end the Model S and Model X lines in the second quarter of 2026. Elon Musk has signaled the development of a new three-row family vehicle to support long-term growth. Analyst Gene Munster suggests that as competitors like Ford and General Motors reduce their EV investments, Tesla is better positioned to regain market share in the U.S.