Study Finds Trump Immigration Crackdown Harms U.S.-Born Workers

A new working paper by economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox concludes that the Trump administration's intensified immigration enforcement has not improved job prospects for U.S.-born workers and has actively harmed those in sectors dependent on undocumented labor, such as construction. The study, which covers the first nine months of the second Trump administration, uses data from the Deportation Data Project and a difference-in-differences methodology.

ICE arrests more than quadrupled after Trump took office, with community "street" arrests rising over elevenfold and arrests of noncitizens without criminal records increasing eightfold. The research found that likely undocumented workers reduced employment by 4% due to a chilling effect, and for every six fewer undocumented workers in a local labor market, one fewer U.S.-born worker was employed. Early observations in Chicago's Little Village neighborhood showed the area resembling a ghost town after ICE raids were signaled.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security pushed back on the findings, stating that removing criminals makes communities safer. The Deportation Data Project also documented that after killings in Minneapolis, street arrests declined nationwide, though it remains unclear whether that shift will persist given new funding appropriations for ICE.