U.S. States Move to Ban Election Prediction Markets

Several U.S. states are asserting their authority to ban betting on elections via prediction market platforms, citing long-standing state laws. The Wisconsin Elections Commission recently reminded voters that such betting is illegal and can result in the loss of voting rights for that election. Similarly, the government of Colorado has explicitly stated that its ban on election wagers includes prediction markets.

In Maryland, administrator of elections Jared Demarinis has requested a prosecutorial investigation into whether these platforms violate state law. These state-level actions create a direct legal conflict with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, which argue that their markets are subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

While a federal appeals court ruled in 2024 that platforms can feature election offerings, the dispute continues over whether the U.S. Constitution's grant of election management power to states preempts federal derivative regulations in this context.