Dutch Intelligence Warns Russia Could Attack NATO Within Year

The Netherlands Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) warned in its annual report that Russia could be capable of initiating a confrontation with NATO member states within 12 months after hostilities in Ukraine cease. While a full-scale conventional war remains unlikely while fighting continues, the agency stated that Moscow could rebuild sufficient combat power in that window to pursue limited territorial gains and employ nuclear threats to sow political division within the alliance.

Director Peter Reesink characterized Russia as the most direct threat to peace and stability in Europe. The report estimates that Russian forces have suffered approximately 1.2 million permanent casualties since 2022, including over 500,000 deaths, yet Moscow continues to expand its military capacity through recruitment and increased production of unmanned systems.

Beyond conventional forces, the MIVD noted that Russia may utilize hybrid warfare, including sabotage and disinformation, to reshape Europe's security architecture. The agency also highlighted a deepening military and technological collaboration between Russia and China, asserting that China's offensive cyber capabilities are now on par with the United States. Parallel warnings were issued by the UK's National Cyber Security Centre, which reported an increase in state-linked cyberattacks from China, Iran, and Russia targeting Britain and its European partners.