Azerbaijan Forecasts Oil Production Decline Through 2030

The Government of Azerbaijan projects a general decline in oil production over the next several years according to its latest budget package. Production for 2026 is estimated at 27.6 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from 2025. Actual data from January through September 2026 already shows a 3.9% decline compared to the same period last year, with 19.86 million tons produced.

Longer-term projections indicate a 3.6% year-on-year drop to 26.562 million tons in 2027, followed by a further decrease to 26.069 million tons in 2028. While output is expected to recover slightly to 26.633 million tons in 2029, it is forecast to fall again to 26.309 million tons by 2030.

In contrast to the domestic budget projections, the US Energy Information Administration maintained its existing forecast for 2027. The agency estimates that Azerbaijan will produce an average of 530,000 barrels per day during that year, leaving its previous production estimates unchanged.